With winter settling over South Africa, it’s only natural to long for a rich, comforting cup of hot chocolate. There’s something deeply satisfying about sipping cocoa late at night—warming the cockles of your heart as the wind howls outside.
But if you’ve been shopping recently, you may have noticed that hot chocolate and cocoa have become noticeably more expensive—and scarcer too. A few years ago, we had a wider range of brands on supermarket shelves. Now? It’s mostly Nestlé and a few smaller names. The Cadbury’s hot chocolate we grew up with seems to have disappeared entirely. That’s no surprise—Mondelez, which owns the Cadbury brand, has been streamlining its portfolio. Even old favourites like Royco tomato soup have vanished.
But let’s get back to cocoa.
Cocoa isn’t just for hot chocolate—it’s a crucial ingredient in baking, confectionery, and, of course, those decadent slabs of chocolate. Over the past decade, chocolate prices have soared. A large Lindt slab that once cost R100 now sells for closer to R300. Cocoa has, in many ways, become a luxury.
Why?
West African cocoa producers—particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for about half of global supply—are holding back cocoa from the market. The aim? To push prices higher. It’s a high-stakes move, and one that reflects how desperate the supply situation has become. Years of poor weather, crop diseases like cocoa swollen shoot virus, and aging plantations have all contributed to lower yields and tight global supply.
Prices surged to record highs—nearly $10,000 per ton earlier this year—before dropping about 30%. Still, they remain high at around $6,000 per ton. The West African gamble may work in the short term, especially as structural challenges continue to weigh on supply. But it’s risky. Global demand could soften, or producers in Indonesia, Brazil, or Ecuador might ramp up output and ease the squeeze.
Even if the price push works, many cocoa farmers in West Africa won’t see the full benefit. Government controls on pricing and advance sales mechanisms mean profits don’t always trickle down. It’s a bittersweet picture: higher prices, but not necessarily better livelihoods.
So, yes—expect cocoa prices to remain elevated in the coming weeks and months, especially as winter fuels demand in the southern hemisphere. But it’s a complex, volatile market. For those of us reaching for a warm mug of hot chocolate, we may have to sip a little more slowly—and treat it as the small luxury it’s become.
