The headlines are enough to keep any South African awake at night. As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil artery—faces effective disruption, global crude prices have surged past $110 per barrel.
For a country like South Africa, which is heavily dependent on imported crude and refined fuels, the question is no longer just about the price at the pump. It is more fundamental than that.
Are we going to run out?
The Fragile State of Play
South Africa finds itself in a precarious position. Over the past few years, much of the country’s domestic refining capacity has been hollowed out. With major plants such as SAPREF refinery and Enref refinery closed, the country is no longer simply importing crude oil to refine locally. Increasingly, we are importing finished petrol and diesel.
Today, our energy security rests on three pillars:
1. NATREF refinery and Astron Energy refinery – the two remaining operational crude refineries.
2. Sasol Secunda – the coal-to-liquids giant that provides a critical domestic cushion.
3. The High Seas – thousands of tons of fuel arriving daily via tankers at South Africa’s ports.
Our African Lifelines: Nigeria and Angola
There is, however, a measure of good news. South Africa is not as dependent on the Middle East as it once was.
Today, Nigeria is our largest crude supplier, providing roughly 30% of imports. Angola follows closely behind, and its importance cannot be overstated.
Unlike oil from the Persian Gulf—which must navigate conflict zones and narrow chokepoints—West African crude travels a relatively safer route down the Atlantic coast. It is a shorter and more straightforward journey.
But “shorter” does not necessarily mean easier. As countries scramble for non-Middle Eastern oil, shipping lanes are growing busier and tanker availability is tightening. In a global energy panic, even reliable routes begin to feel strained.
The Competition: A Tug-of-War for African Crude
This is where the story becomes more complicated. South Africa is not the only country looking toward West Africa.
• European demand: With Middle Eastern supplies under threat, European buyers are aggressively seeking West African “sweet crude.”
• The China factor: China remains deeply embedded in Angola’s oil sector through financing and infrastructure deals.
Angola is working to stabilise and slightly increase production—forecast to reach around 1.14 million barrels per day this year—but much of that oil is already committed under long-term contracts with major global buyers.
South Africa is therefore entering a global bidding contest with a weakening rand, competing against some of the world’s largest economies for supply.
More Than Just Petrol: The Food Connection
The danger of an oil shock goes far beyond empty fuel pumps.
Crude oil is the hidden ingredient behind much of the modern food system.
• Fertiliser: Roughly 80% of the fertiliser used by South African farmers is imported. Its production relies heavily on natural gas and petroleum products.
• Logistics: With rail infrastructure under strain, most food in South Africa moves by truck.
If oil becomes scarce—or simply too expensive—the first shock may not appear at the petrol station. It may appear on supermarket shelves.
The Verdict: Panic or Preparation?
For now, the government says there is no immediate crisis. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources maintains that fuel supplies remain stable and that contingency plans are in place.
But the present oil shock should serve as a warning.
South Africa is part of a global race for energy. While our African neighbours possess the oil we need, we are no longer the only ones knocking on their door.
For the moment, the supply lines remain open.
But they are under more pressure than they have been in decades.
