Articles are surfacing about renewed interest among American scientists in the threat of asteroids hitting Earth. It reminds me of the film Space Cowboys, starring Tommy Lee Jones, about a group of ageing astronauts called out of retirement to deal with a space emergency.
If you look at the history of large asteroids and other objects hitting Earth, the potential consequences are frightening. The 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia caused enormous damage, flattening thousands of square kilometres of forest. It was a relatively small object by asteroid standards.
The threat of a much larger asteroid striking Earth is considered a low-probability but high-consequence risk. It is unlikely to happen in our lifetime, but if it did, the devastation could be catastrophic. So why are scientists taking such an interest in the subject now?
An asteroid roughly three kilometres across could cause global devastation, although impacts of this magnitude are estimated to occur only once every several million years. Smaller objects capable of causing widespread regional destruction are more frequent, but remain extremely rare on human timescales.
The good news is that authorities say there are no known serious asteroid threats to Earth over at least the next 100 years. That doesn’t mean the risk is zero, however, and scientists are working on ways to protect the planet should a dangerous object be detected.
NASA has already made progress. In 2022, its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission deliberately crashed a spacecraft into Dimorphos, a small asteroid moon, successfully changing its orbit around its parent asteroid. The experiment demonstrated that a spacecraft could alter an asteroid’s trajectory. Given sufficient warning, such a small nudge could potentially prevent a future collision.
Scientists are also investigating other deflection methods, including nuclear devices, while international teams participate in exercises designed to test how they would respond to a potential impact.
The question is whether we are adequately prepared for an event that could have devastating consequences. The chances of a major impact are remote, but the consequences are sufficiently serious to justify research and preparation.
Hollywood has long been fascinated by the prospect. Armageddon, the 1998 blockbuster starring Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck, imagined a Texas-sized asteroid hurtling towards Earth. Space Cowboys, released in 2000, featured Tommy Lee Jones and a team of ageing former astronauts confronting a different space-related crisis.
The films are entertaining, if not particularly scientific. But the underlying question is a serious one: if we discovered a large asteroid heading towards Earth, could we stop it?
Scientists are working towards an answer. And perhaps that is why the subject deserves more attention than it usually receives.
Further reading: Zero Hedge examines the renewed concern about asteroid impacts and the efforts being made to prepare for one.
Why Are Scientists Suddenly So Concerned About an Asteroid Hitting Earth? — Zero Hedge
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